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???data-intelligence
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1.??[Churn]
????????????????????????????????????????100???????70???????????????????????????30%???????30??????100????????
?????????????????????????????100??????30%?????[30%???]??????????????30%?????????????????????70%????????????????????????????????????????????????*????????70%*100=70?????????????70???????????
???????????????????????????????70%*70%*100=49?????????????????????????????????
??????????????????????????????????????????????
1/% churn =Ave.player LifeTime
?????????????30%????????????????
1/30%=3.3 month
?????????????????????????????????????????????LTV???????????
?????????????????????????????????????????5%?15%?????5%???????????20%???????15%????????50%?????
2.??????????[ARPPU]
???????????????????????????????????????????????????????ARPPU?????????????????????
????/??????
?????????????
Virtual World: Habbo Hotel: $30 ARPPU (Sulake)
Online Game: Puzzle Pirates, Three Rings: $50 ARPPU (Gamasutra)
Social Game: Playdom: $20 ARPPU (Lightspeed Venture Partners)
3.?????????[ARPU]
????????????ARPPU???????????????ARPU??????
????/????????????
?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????
Zynga??????????????ARPU???$0.40?????????????????????????????????????????
Casual Social Game: A casual game is designed for anyone, including those without prior gaming experience. Such as Farmville, Cityville, Bejeweled, Words with Friends. ARPU around $0.10 ? $0.20
Virtual Currency Poker and Casino Games: Traditional gambling games that only allow players to play with virtual currency, such as Zynga Poker, Slotomania. ARPU around $0.25 ? $1.25
Mid-core Social Game: Typically more investment is required to succeed. Tends to be more competitive in nature, and players can be punished for not playing well, such as Mafia Wars and Backyard Monsters. ARPU: $0.25 ? $1.25
Virtual Worlds: Online worlds where players create avatars and interact in realtime, such as Habbo Hotel, Club Penguin, Runescape, and Puzzle Pirates. ARPU around $0.84 ? $1.62
4.??????[LTV]
?????????????????????LTV????????????LTV?????
ARPU*??????????????[???????????? ??????]
????????ARPU=$0.5???????5???????????[??????=5month]???LTV??
$0.5*5=$2.5
????????????????????????,????????????????????????????????????????????ARPU??????????????????????????LTV??????????????????????????????????????????????????
5.K??[K-Factor]
??????????????
???*???
??????????????????????
??K-Factor?1????????????????????????????????????[???]?
??K-Factor???1???????????????????
??K-Factor???1?????????????????
????????????K-Factor??1??????????Zynga?2011??Q1???4000w??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????
6.CPA
?????????????????????????????CPA????????????????
????--->??--->??????--->?????????
???????????
???/??????
????1000???Google Adwords???1000?????CPA???1000/1000=1??CPA
????
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1. Churn
The percentage of users who leave your game each month, or sometimes measured as the percentage who leave each week. For example, if a game that has 100 users at the start of the month, and 70 of those users are still playing the game at the end of the month, then we would say the churn rate is 30% because 30 of the original 100 people left that month.
The churn rate can also be thought of as a probability that a player will leave. For example, imagine a game that has 100 players and a 30% of any player leaving (30% churn). That 30% chance of leaving could also be thought of as a 70% chance of staying. So if we want to figure out how many players will be left at the end of the month all we multiply the chance of staying by the number of players at the start of the month. So 70% x 100 = 70 players at the end of the month.
To calculate how many will be left after two months we can simply do it twice, 70% x 70% x 100 = 49 players after two months.
Treating churn as a probability allows us to estimate how long the average person plays your game. The equation is simple: 1 / % Churn = Ave. Player Lifetime. For example, with our 30% monthly churn rate we find that 1 / 30% = 3.3 months average player lifetime.
This comes in important later when we want to calculate how much the average player is worth to us, or the LifeTime Value (LTV).
Ignoring the first week (well talk about that in the Onboarding definition) a social game or virtual world will typically see week to week churn around 5% to 15%. A 5% weekly churn is equivalent to roughly 20% monthly churn. While 15% weekly churn is equivalent to 50% monthly churn.
Phew, that was a long one, dont worry, the rest are shorter!
2. ARPPU
Average Revenue Per Paying User, usually measured each month. In other words, how much money does the average customer spend (most of your players will never spend any money, ARPPU only includes those who spend money). It can be calculated as total monthly revenue divided by total monthly paying users. Some benchmarks:
Virtual World: Habbo Hotel: $30 ARPPU (Sulake)
Online Game: Puzzle Pirates, Three Rings: $50 ARPPU (Gamasutra)
Social Game: Playdom: $20 ARPPU (Lightspeed Venture Partners)
Club Penguin, on the other hand, has subscriptions and no micropayments. Their ARPPU is somewhere around the $6 mark.
3. ARPU
Average revenue per active user, and like the ARPPU this is also measured each month. The ARPU is calculated by dividing the total revenue for the month by the total number of unique players for the month. Sort of. Depending on the account methodology used it could be said that revenue from the purchase of a virtual clothing item should be amortized over the players lifetime, where as energy and consumables can be recognized immediately. I think thats just making it all a little too complicated!
From the Zynga IPO filing (link) that the average revenue per user per month is around $0.40. Of course, thats across their whole portfolio of games. In practice, different types of games monetize better than others.
Casual Social Game: A casual game is designed for anyone, including those without prior gaming experience. Such as Farmville, Cityville, Bejeweled, Words with Friends. ARPU around $0.10 ? $0.20
Virtual Currency Poker and Casino Games: Traditional gambling games that only allow players to play with virtual currency, such as Zynga Poker, Slotomania. ARPU around $0.25 ? $1.25
Mid-core Social Game: Typically more investment is required to succeed. Tends to be more competitive in nature, and players can be punished for not playing well, such as Mafia Wars and Backyard Monsters. ARPU: $0.25 ? $1.25
Virtual Worlds: Online worlds where players create avatars and interact in realtime, such as Habbo Hotel, Club Penguin, Runescape, and Puzzle Pirates. ARPU around $0.84 ? $1.62
4. LTV
The Life Time Value is the average amount of money spent by each player. The LTV includes paying and no-paying players. To calculate the LTV you multiply the ARPU by the average number of months a player stays in your game. For example, if the ARPU is $0.50 and the average player lifetime is 5 months then the LTV is $0.50 x 5 = $2.50.
Earlier we used the Churn Rate to calculate the average player life time. This is really useful. After only 1 month you know roughly how long the average player will stay in the game, and you know how much they spend on average (ARPU) and therefore how much each player is worth over their lifetime (LTV). Through knowing how much each player is worth you can figure out how much you can afford to spend on advertising for new players.
5. K-Factor
The measure of viral growth. Its calculated by multiplying the Infection Rate by the Conversion rate. The conversion rate is when the Infection turns into a new user.
A K-Factor of 1 means every member is bringing one additional member to your game, your game is not growing nor is the game declining. A K-Factor of less than 1 means that without ongoing marketing your game will run out of players. While a K-Factor greater than 1 means that your game is growing exponentially.
It is very rare that any game will ever have a K-Factor greater than 1. Thats why Zynga spent $40,000,000 on marketing in Q1 2011. All games need marketing to continue growing. Of course the difference between a successful game and a failure is that a successful game spends money on marketing but still makes a profit on each player they acquire. Thats why the next definition is so important
6. CPA
The Cost Per Acquisition is a measure of the cost of bringing that user to your game. The CPA can be measured in different ways. We recommend measuring the CPA as the cost to convert a new visitor from the homepage into someone who has registered, finished the tutorial, and become a player. So the CPA for an advertising campaign can be calculated by dividing the total spend by the number of new players. If we spend $1000 on Google Adwords and get 2000 new players then our CPA is $1000 / 1000 = $1.00 CPA.
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发表于 2012-9-24 14:50:00