福布斯称网易是中国游戏仅存的希望

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　　近日，福布斯发文称“网易是目前中国大陆网络游戏行业中的为数不多的亮点”。原文以2011年ChinaJoy为背景，回顾了中国网游在过去10年里的成长历程，对国内网游企业的发展潜力表示担忧，称网易或许是中国游戏行业仅存的希望。

　　文章指出，网易因游戏开发能力突出，国内玩家基础庞大，因此其行业成绩出色。文章还称，与网易的出色表现所相反，盛大就是国内游戏行业的最佳写照——被失望情绪笼罩。文章还提及了年初盛大因缺少投资者而私有化和股价下跌事件，并强调像九城、完美世界等“种子公司”在2011年的表现欠佳。

　　但是，与福布斯评论相反的是，有部分业内人士则提出不同意见。他们认为，2011年中国网游行业发展重新回到高速轨道。2011年中国网络游戏实际收入达到了428亿元，增长率为32.4%（2010年为26%），与2010年的徘徊发展相比，2011年国内网游行业又回复到高速发展的轨道。他们还称，2011年中国的网游企业继续加快了“走出去步伐”，以畅游、完美、盛大、金山和蜗牛为代表的一大批网游厂商在海外运营上都取得了不俗的成绩，2011年共有131款中国自主研发的产品进入海外市场。

　　以下附文章中引文全文：

　　Online Games: Where's the Excitement? 中国网游企业增长有限

　　第十届中国国际数码互动娱乐展览会（ChinaJoy）的新闻稿提醒了我，我很少再写这个曾令人激动的产业。对那些尽管创新纪录不佳，但拥有庞大的国内市场的互联网企业而言，网游业几乎成为他们的主要收入来源。该展览会在十周年活动发布会上发布新标识，宣布近期展览重点关注网游行业。但依我看，这并不值得庆祝。2010年，中国网游销售突破324亿元，同比增长26%，但仍远远低於五六年前网游鼎盛期的增速。

　　失望情绪笼罩网游行业，盛大互动娱乐公司或许是最佳写照。该公司於2004年在纳斯达克上市，成为网游公司上市的先行者。盛大随後将网游业务剥离出来，成立盛大游戏，由於未能足够吸引投资者等原因，今年稍早最终私有化。盛大游戏自上市以来，未能引起投资者兴趣，目前股价约为 2009年上市发行价的三分之一。网游业其它“种子选手”包括第九城市（The9）、完美世界和Giant Interactive，而这些公司的表现均欠佳。但也有例外，网易因游戏开发能力突出，国内网游爱好者基础庞大，因此其网游业绩表现出色。

　　相比之下，盛大等公司，尽管竭尽全力，但努力基本失败，未能创造出畅销游戏，收入大多来自外国公司授权的游戏。这一模式由於利润率更小，并不怎麽赚钱，而且如果未能延续授权合约，还将导致营收迅速减少。这在两年前得到印证，当时，第九城市未能与美国公司暴雪娱乐（Activision Blizzard）达成授权更新协议，失去该平台最受欢迎的游戏《魔兽世界》经营权，其网游业务差点毁于一旦。第九城市近期发布了一款自主研发的新游戏，并达成一项全球授权协议，股价随之提振，情况有所好转。

　　但略有讽刺的是，新游戏并非其中国设计室研发，而是由其并购的美国游戏开发商研发。综上所述，网易或是网游行业近期唯一仍有希望的企业，尽管第九城市美国工作室若能研发更多成功的网游，该公司也有望上升发展。

　　A press release from ChinaJoy, China's oldest online gaming show now celebrating its 10th anniversary, reminded me of how little I write about this once-exciting industry anymore, which has become mostly a bumper crop of companies with poor track records at innovation despite their huge home market. ChinaJoy announced its big anniversary with fanfare, unveiling a new logo and announcing a slate of its latest shows centered on the online game industry. (official announcement) But from where I sit, there's very little to celebrate. The industry posted revenue of 32.4 billion yuan in 2010, about $5 billion, rising a respectable 26 percent from the year before but still sharply slower than growth rates 5 or 6 years ago when the hype was loudest. Perhaps the company that best illustrates the disappointment surrounding this sector is Shanda Interactive, which became the sector's first player to go public with its Nasdaq IPO in 2004. The company then spun off its gaming unit into a separate company, Shanda Games (Nasdaq: GAME), and then finally itself went private earlier this year due in part to lackluster investor interest. (previous post) Since its listing, Shanda Games has failed to attract much investor interest and the stock now trades at about one-third of its IPO price in 2009. Other hopefuls from the sector included The9 (Nasdaq: NCTY), Perfect World (Nasdaq: PWRD) and Giant Interactive (NYSE: GA), which have all seen similar lackluster performance. One notable exception to this uninspired group has been NetEase (Nasdaq: NTES), one of China's earliest Internet companies, which has actually done quite well in the space due to its strong ability to self-develop games that have found strong fan bases among domestic Chinese gamers. By comparison, Shanda and the others, despite their best efforts, have largely failed to create popular titles and instead rely on licensing games developed by foreign companies for most of their revenue. That model is not only less profitable, as profit margins are much smaller, but also dangerous as companies can quickly lose much of their revenue when a license expires if they fail to renew it. That case was illustrated 2 years ago when The9 saw its business disappear almost overnight when it lost its most popular game, World of Warcraft, after failing to renew a licensing deal with the game's owner, US firm Activision Blizzard (Nasdaq: ATVI). The9 got a recent lift when it announced a new self-developed title and a global licensing deal, providing a boost to its stagnant shares. (previous post) But somewhat ironically, the title was developed by a US-based game developer purchased by The9, rather than the company's own China-based design house. For all of these reasons, NetEase may remain the only interesting company in this once-promising space for the near future, though The9 could potentially also rise if its US-based design house can produce more successful titles.

　　Bottom line: China's online game operators will see little or no growth in the next few years except for the handful that can develop their own successful titles rather than rely on licensing deals.

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